Oral Roberts

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	255.0
Current RPI:	255
Expected SOS:	148
Current SOS:	148
Current Record:	8-20
Expected Record:	8-20
Current Conf Record:	5-10
Expected Conf Record:	5-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-7
Current OOC Record:	3-10
Expected OOC Record:	3-10
Expected OOC RPI:	218
Expected OOC SOS:	78

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-20	255.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oral Roberts.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Tulsa (89.0)	Amer	A	90-71	L	0%
11-16	Oklahoma St. (88.0)	B12	A	91-48	L	0%
11-20	Montana (76.0)	BSky	N	69-64	L	0%
11-21	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	A	80-76	L	0%
11-24	Penn St. (77.0)	B10	A	86-48	L	0%
11-27	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	H	86-93	L	0%
11-29	Kansas St. (53.0)	B12	A	77-68	L	0%
12-2	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	A	66-74	W	100%
12-5	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	N	92-66	L	0%
12-10	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	H	73-66	W	100%
12-16	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	A	64-83	W	100%
12-19	Arkansas (30.0)	SEC	A	104-69	L	0%
12-21	Minnesota (171.0)	B10	A	77-63	L	0%
12-30	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	H	93-74	W	100%
1-4	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	H	76-60	W	100%
1-6	Western Illinois (302.0)	Sum	H	81-66	W	100%
1-11	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	A	78-75	L	0%
1-13	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	A	82-64	L	0%
1-17	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	A	82-70	L	0%
1-20	Denver (224.0)	Sum	H	64-73	L	0%
2-1	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	A	85-75	L	0%
2-3	Western Illinois (302.0)	Sum	A	82-56	L	0%
2-8	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	H	67-66	W	100%
2-10	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	H	75-85	L	0%
2-14	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	H	67-85	L	0%
2-18	Denver (224.0)	Sum	A	66-65	L	0%
2-22	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	A	75-83	W	100%
3-4	Denver (224.0)	Sum	N	90-88	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oral Roberts's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Oral Roberts's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Oral Roberts.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Oral Roberts	Sum	26.41	26.41	30.51	30.51	-10.30	-10.30
Denver	Sum	6.21	6.21	40.00	40.00	-1.24	-1.24
South Dakota St.	Sum	4.63	4.63	78.57	78.57	2.64	2.64
South Dakota	Sum	4.62	4.62	71.43	71.43	1.98	1.98
North Dakota St.	Sum	4.58	4.58	40.74	40.74	-0.85	-0.85
Fort Wayne	Sum	4.48	4.48	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	4.46	4.46	25.93	25.93	-2.15	-2.15
Western Illinois	Sum	4.43	4.43	31.82	31.82	-1.61	-1.61
Missouri St.	MVC	1.97	1.97	54.84	54.84	0.19	0.19
Oklahoma St.	B12	1.92	1.92	56.25	56.25	0.24	0.24
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	1.88	1.88	66.67	66.67	0.63	0.63
Kansas St.	B12	1.87	1.87	65.62	65.62	0.58	0.58
Oakland	Horz	1.85	1.85	56.25	56.25	0.23	0.23
Penn St.	B10	1.84	1.84	60.61	60.61	0.39	0.39
Arkansas	SEC	1.84	1.84	66.67	66.67	0.61	0.61
Tulsa	Amer	1.84	1.84	60.00	60.00	0.37	0.37
Minnesota	B10	1.84	1.84	45.16	45.16	-0.18	-0.18
Pepperdine	WCC	1.81	1.81	13.33	13.33	-1.33	-1.33
Montana	BSky	1.81	1.81	76.67	76.67	0.97	0.97
Little Rock	SB	1.79	1.79	20.69	20.69	-1.05	-1.05
UNLV	MWC	1.79	1.79	59.38	59.38	0.33	0.33
Drake	MVC	0.33	0.33	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.31	0.31	79.41	79.41	0.18	0.18
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.30	0.30	61.29	61.29	0.07	0.07
Montana St.	BSky	0.28	0.28	36.67	36.67	-0.07	-0.07
North Dakota	BSky	0.27	0.27	33.33	33.33	-0.09	-0.09
TCU	B12	0.26	0.26	65.62	65.62	0.08	0.08
USC Upstate	ASun	0.24	0.24	10.71	10.71	-0.19	-0.19
Oklahoma	B12	0.22	0.22	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.21	0.21	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.21	0.21	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.21	0.21	10.34	10.34	-0.17	-0.17
Stetson	ASun	0.18	0.18	28.57	28.57	-0.08	-0.08
Wyoming	MWC	0.18	0.18	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.18	0.18	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
Air Force	MWC	0.18	0.18	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Wichita St.	Amer	0.17	0.17	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
Iowa	B10	0.17	0.17	42.42	42.42	-0.03	-0.03
IUPUI	Horz	0.16	0.16	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
Colorado	P12	0.16	0.16	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
UMKC	WAC	0.15	0.15	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Indiana	B10	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Illinois St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.14	0.14	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Texas A&M	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Navy	Pat	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.12	0.12	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Memphis	Amer	0.12	0.12	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Southern Utah	BSky	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.11	82.35	82.35	0.07	0.07
Baylor	B12	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
West Virginia	B12	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
American	Pat	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Washington	P12	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Appalachian St.	SB	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.09	0.09	24.24	24.24	-0.05	-0.05
Bowling Green	MAC	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.09	0.09	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Georgia Southern	SB	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.09	0.09	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.09	0.09	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Santa Clara	WCC	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Rutgers	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	87.88	87.88	0.06	0.06
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Maryland	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Butler	BE	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.06	-0.06
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
USC	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
UTEP	CUSA	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.06	0.06	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
NJIT	ASun	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	Amer	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Houston	Amer	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01